Sunday, January 5, 2014

More technological revolutions

In the last post just before New Year's I included a graphic that combined the three horizons framework from Sharpe and Hodgson with the the cyclical sequence of tech-driven economic change.  As promised, here is an additional graphic (build for upcoming content) that illustrates the various technological revolutions that Perez talks about in her book, Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages.

We built the waves using the tech revolution start dates ("big bangs") and end dates that Perez identified and built the projected 5th and 6th waves using mean averages of the previous waves.

What's really interesting to me, and what I would really like to focus on more, is the idea that, if in fact innovation is accelerating globally, then will these waves begin to overlap more as the cycle (the "surges") shorten?  The result, I suspect, would be greater turbulence as the different surges, each at different phases in their life cycle, wreak increasing havoc (just kidding) through culture lag, dislocation, and what not.

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