Hawai'i: Choose your own scenario

Do you believe, like good ‘ole Thomas Hobbes, that people are inherently nasty and evil?  Or do you get all warm and fuzzy thinking about the good deeds that spring unbidden from the minds and hands of humans everywhere?

Beliefs like these are critical to how you perceive the future, and they color every judgment about goals, policy, and strategy that you make.  The four scenarios below, all dealing with the future of Hawai‘i, show how different beliefs about how the world works, from theories about the economy to beliefs about human nature, interact to suggest very different futures for our lovely state.

What do you believe?

Two Axes: Two Spectrums of Theories

Using the well-known “2x2 matrix” process of building scenarios popularized by the Global Business Network, the following four scenarios emerge from a 2x2 matrix formed by crossing two spectrums of beliefs about how certain things in life work.

Economic Change: Do you believe that our current economic and employment malaise will end naturally (it’s just a cycle, silly), or do you think something deeper is going on that’s permanently changing the nature of work and productivity?

Human Nature: will physical tribalism (ethnic and cultural associations) always win out in a contest of identities, or can ideational tribalism (identities based on other common values and interests) take root and trump facial features and living next to each other?

By Gradual Turns (Cyclical Economy + Ideational Tribalism)

The clear and unambiguous signs of energy insecurity and natural resource constraints drive residents of Hawai‘i to gradually form a common set of concerns and a clear sense of “being in it together.”  A rise in fairly traditional, but refreshingly cooperative, politics leads to a surprisingly coherent consensus on Hawai‘i’s best pathways to more energy and food security, a consensus that leads to a common vision for the first time in recent memory.  Rallying around this clear and common vision, community leaders and policy makers pressure business leaders into gradually overhauling Hawai‘i’s industries toward both more sustainability and more community-sensitivity.  The coincident upward turn of the economy, following its cyclical path out of the downswing, provides more resources and “breathing room” for business to buy into these changes, while providing law makers with a broader budget to create state-wide incentives.  In this emerging period of plenty, and building on the common vision that people hold, frank but positive discussions between all sectors of Hawai‘i lead to far-reaching changes in how people are educated and in how businesses are allowed to operate.

Harmonious Dislocation (Structural Economic Shifts + Ideational Tribalism)

Government work, long characterized by an ever-growing administrative bureaucracy, is squeezed between the slow advance of automation on the one hand and shrinking public budgets on the other.  This hollowing out of government employment sparks a crisis of economic confidence as labor unions attempt to rally public support for government workers by raising the specter of mass unemployment.  Instead of mass panic, the PR campaign instead triggers a widespread questioning of the future of employment in Hawai‘i.  Starting with a series of new organized labor agreements, an emergent “New Work” movement leads to an unprecedented renegotiation of social contracts between lawmakers, business, and citizens, redistributing technology-driven productivity gains to offset the fewer hours and lower earnings of many workers, redefining employment standards, taxation, and citizen benefits in the process.  Increasingly freed from “wage-work”, people explore other productive activities, giving rise to non-money forms of economics, a proliferation of arts, community, and culture, and ultimately leading to very different economic lifestyles among different types of workers within the state.  For a decreasing percentage of the population, those employed full-time, life continues to revolve around the ever-increasing competitive demands of office and shop.  For the rest, life is becoming more social.  Hawai‘i’s schools begin to evolve away from each other, specializing in very different types of preparation and providing increasingly distinct pathways to these different economic lifestyles.

Waiting it Out (Cyclical Economy + Physical Tribalism)

Given enough time, the economy pulls itself out of the doldrums and growth returns.  As tourism dollars flow in and government budgets slowly fill out, organizations once again begin to hire, creating an irresistible pull for a workforce long starved for opportunity.  The faith of lawmakers and business leaders in Hawai‘i’s mainstay industries is rewarded and a return to policy-as-usual is welcomed with quiet, relieved sighs in koa-paneled boardrooms across the state.  Without significant change in the state’s economy or industry makeup, patterns of socio-economic distribution continue to be shaped by educational experience and broad cultural affiliations, each reinforced now by the steady drivers of immigration from the Pacific and in-migration from the mainland.  The socio-economic-ethnic lines, long perceived but rarely discussed, harden as economic trends and roles become more firmly entrenched.  As the economy slowly cycles through its ups and downs the best predictors of employment and professional status remain cultural and ethnic identity.

Chasing Growth (Structural Economic Shifts + Physical Tribalism)

After years of ineffectual employment growth strategies for the local economy, policy makers finally accept that “the jobs just aren’t coming back.”  Even as state GDP rises, job demand continues to fall behind productivity and growth, presenting a growing state population with fewer viable employment options.  As competition for jobs intensifies, the unemployment rolls expand, and the population continues to grow, a variety of reactions emerge, in particular a rising anti-immigrant/in-migrant sentiment.  Underground “hire kama‘āina” campaigns proliferate across social networks and many organizations adopt requirements that job applicants demonstrate local “cultural competence.”  But as the economic data gets analyzed, experts find that certain sectors have remained largely untouched by either automation (job loss) or significant productivity gains.  In a flash, law makers start dropping sound bites about Hawai‘i’s future being in “difficult-to-automate” (DTA) jobs, leading local pundits to talk about the “Hands-On Economy,” referring to jobs that require the combination of human problem solving with high dexterity and mobility.  Politicians introduce bills to redefine the service economy into a Hands-On Economy, while labor unions quickly begin calling for recognition and protections for the “vital” DTA jobs their members perform.  Many (but not all) health care workers, mechanics, home repair professionals, construction workers, and small scale farmers all see a boost in their prospects and morale, while those seeking work scramble into the DTA sectors and the educational establishment begins its slow, painful turn to supporting these career paths.