Measuring the effectiveness of foresight

Lately I've been thinking about how to measure whether or not foresight work has been effective for an organizational client.  Not that this is a new topic by any stretch of the imagination, but it struck me the other day that, well, of course you can try to measure the impact of your foresight work.

A starter list of metrics might include:

• Did you (the organization) develop a new product or service or enter a market (that is profitable), which you otherwise would not have, based on some finding or outcome from the foresight work?
• Did you create a new market as a result of the foresight work?
• Did you end a product or service or leave/avoid a market that you otherwise would not have, as a result of the work?
• Did you avoid, or were you unusually prepared for, an event or development as a result of the work?
• Did you establish something aspirational (vision or goals) as a result of the work, which continues to inspire and orient the organization?
• Did you establish an ongoing foresight activity (like scanning) as a result of the work that continues to inform organizational decision-making?

We'll keep working on this list, but it's a reasonable place to start.